Friday, August 29, 2008

Statistics

The UK housing market facts:
  • ~1 million landlords.
  • 24+ million households (2008).
  • 30% of us rent.
  • When looking at the long term trend then average house prices today should be about 100K and not 160K+. This means the house price must crash for a further 4 years.
  • Average mortgage size secured on new house purchases is currently 138K (June 2008). Approx 5.5x average 2007 pay.
  • Average wage in 2007 was 25K.
  • 1442 billion owed by individuals in the UK (Jun 2008) increasing 106 billion (7.4%) yearly.
  • 1212 billion owed on dwellings (Jun 2008) increasing 90 billion (7.5%) yearly.
  • 360 billion in building society assets (Apr 2008).
  • 12 billion projected UK building society savings in 2008.
  • 7 billion projected UK building society lending in 2008
The statistics:
LandRegistry - August 2008
Bank of England - Overview
Gov
statistics - Overview
Building Society Association - Overview
Incomes Data - Employment Overview

The Time bomb:

Telegraph
Marketwatch
DailyMail
Timeonline- taxes set to rise substantially
Telegraph - The US could default on it's own debt! (Sep 2008) + bets

FTSE Speculator proof - why not to invest until 2009:
Worst Week In 6 Years - 5 Sep 2008
The worst is yet to come - 13 Sep 2008
Guardian - Proof that any form of investing is a complete gamble (Sep 2008)

Falling House Prices:
Telegraph - worst since the great depression

Reasons for a recession/downturn:
  • Oil prices rose by a similar level to the 1970's oil shock related recession.
  • Unemployment is rising (soon to be increasing by 100K+ per month).
  • Sterling is falling against other currencies making our exports more expensive.
  • People are not borrowing anymore as far as building societies are concerned. Means the housing market can no longer expand.
  • Taxes are set to rise by 5%+ to fund the governments debts (soon to be 100bn!).
  • Poor energy planning means energy blackouts soon to be common place within 5 years.
  • Living costs increasing substantially.
Outlook for the UK
  • Unemployment rising rapidly. Possibly higher than 3 million.
  • Luxury goods suppliers going out of business
  • Taxes to rise every year (already happening with corporation tax).
  • Bank/Building society write-offs to substantially increase. Severely hitting profits.
  • Who has the toxic debts will soon materialize and will hit the share prices of the affected companies.
How to avoid the downturn:
  • Don't invest more than 50K in any institution.
  • Obtain as many skills as possible. Ensure you can switch careers or have a second job as a hobby.
  • Don't keep your money in one place for more than a year.
  • Don't invest in the stock market or investment funds. It's just gambling in this climate.
  • Sell any housing investments now.
  • If a first time buyer and desperate to buy then go to auction.
  • Work close to home and cycle to work if possible.
  • Sell any US related investments you have.
Science blog - we are in an 'era' of huge scientific achievements which are listed here
Cern lab soon to start work - will it be the end of the world?
Cern lab - overview
Cern lab - overview 2
Searching for Higgs Boson - will it happen?

History of the universe - we are just star dust!
A universe with no dark matter - a big mystery
A neighbouring universe - stunning image
The teleport invention - beam me up scotty!
The next airport detectors! - can see through clothing!
UK plane makes record achievement! - something to be proud of
Suspended animation
- lets all sleep for 1000 years!
Hubble maps dark matter
- the strange matter
The gamma ray telescope - seeing new things.
Where did the cosmic neutrinos go? - a big mystery
Seeing dark matter - a big achievement
Nano-robots - coming to a surgery near you in 100 years time!
Stars and black hole mystery - solved